This year, the famous Mother’s Day noodle necklace will be more valuable than ever. The package of pasta shells or tagliatelle indeed costs 15.31% more than a year ago, according to the barometer established by the Iri Institute of Studies. Not good news, as this usually economical and easy-to-use food is THE big star of family kitchen cupboards. “It has nothing to do with the war in Ukraine,” insists Emilie Meyer, specialist at IRI, consumer products. If the price of pasta is soaring, it is because the world prices of durum wheat, impacted by the vagaries of the weather last year (drought, floods), have reached peaks.
2. Frozen meats
Same causes, same effects. If it does not rain, the cattle have less grass and fodder to eat. It must be supplemented more with cereals which, due to bad harvests, see their prices soar. The cost of meat production suffers. In addition, after the shutdown imposed by the pandemic, industrial demand recovered faster than supply, leading to soaring prices for energy and transport, as well as packaging. Consequence: +11.33% on frozen meats.
Same story. With, here too, a double-digit annual inflation of +10.93%. “The more gross the product – which is the case for raw materials – the more marked the inflation,” underlines Émilie Meyer. Once again, the worst is yet to come because the last trade negotiations on prices between industrialists and large retailers took place before the start of the conflict in Ukraine, a major wheat producer. “Food price inflation, currently around 3%, could rise to around 5% by this summer: unheard of since 2008,” said the specialist on RCF Lyon.
Yes, sunflower oil shelves are empty in supermarkets. But, if there is a shortage, it is because of consumers who, as a precaution, have rushed to build up their stock. According to Émilie Meyer, this does not affect prices, “except to lead to postpone purchases on more expensive products – olive oil for example -, and therefore amplify inflation”. What, on the other hand, is already influencing the waltz of labels is the increase in demand for vegetable oils induced by the development of biofuels.
Dijon (Côte-d’Or) is in France but Burgundy is not the center of the world. The episodes of drought which ruined, last year, mustard harvests in Canada, the world’s largest producer, down 30%. However, it is not Russia and Ukraine that will compensate for this failure in the coming months. Result: the little seed that gives spice to your dishes has reached €1,700 per ton. For its part, Burgundian production, constrained by bans on pesticides, is hampered by pest attacks.